About two weeks ago, we shared a projected scoring of Outdoor Heps done by Letsrun.com forum poster “Kibitzer” based on the performances as of 4/16/12.
Yesterday, Kibitzer updated the scoring based on the updated performances listed on TFRRS (also recounted in yesterday’s event listings). No injury reports were consulted and there were no modifications based on reasonable doubles/triples or relay line-ups. Although Cornell may still lead the projected leaderboard, there were a number of changes in the rest of the scoring, allowing the competitions to be closer than originally thought. Granted, we don’t know how accurate these projections will be. The only way to know is to follow or attend the meet. Will we see you there?
MEN’S VIRTUAL SCORING
Individual running events (IRE): Princeton 92, Cornell 91, Columbia 49, Brown 27, Dartmouth 23, Harvard 12, Yale 10, Penn 5
Field events minus decathlon (FEMD): Cornell 92, Princeton 54, Harvard 48, Yale 16, Brown 13, Penn 12, Dartmouth 9, Columbia 2
IRE + FEMD: Cornell 183, Princeton 146, Harvard 60, Columbia 51, Brown 40, Dartmouth 32, Yale 26, Penn 17
IRE + FEMD + Relays: Cornell 211, Princeton 162, Columbia 65, Harvard 65, Dartmouth 43, Brown 40, Yale 36, Penn 26
IRE + FEMD + Decathlon: Cornell 195, Princeton 159, Harvard 60, Columbia 51, Brown 46, Dartmouth 32, Yale 26, Penn 17
Everything: Cornell 223, Princeton 175, Columbia 65, Harvard 65, Brown 46, Dartmouth 43, Yale 36, Penn 26
Kibitzer’s comments on the scoring:
“Though the biggest gainer in this rescoring is Dartmouth, which tripled its projected total score, Princeton also gained points (14)–though mostly at the expense of the Other Six, with Cornell only dropping from 226 to 223.
Nevertheless, I see the meet between those two as quite close, because Cornell’s scoring depends on keeping one or two men very (implausibly) busy; and, with the NCAA Regional meet another three weeks away, I can imagine that Princeton might try to wring every possible point from its cadre of middle-/distance runners. As they were indoors, I imagine the Big Red will be the Other Six’s biggest fans when the longer races are under way.
In addition, some of Cornell’s projected scoring performances seem to have been helped by substantial wind aid. I think getting something like the projected points in the three heavy throws will be very important for CU.
Another potential factor: it’s got to be easier for fans to get to Penn from Princeton than from Ithaca. Fan turnouts, esp. at the field venues, might make a difference.”
WOMEN’S VIRTUAL SCORING
Individual running events (IRE): Cornell 106, Columbia 52, Brown 45, Princeton 42, Dartmouth 28, Harvard 25, Penn 24, Yale 19
Big movers here were Dartmouth and Brown, which added 14 and 15 points respectively. Cornell added a few points, and Penn held steady; all others dropped several points.
Field events minus heptathlon (FEMH): Cornell 60, Harvard 54, Columbia 33, Brown 30, Princeton 26, Penn 25, Dartmouth 16, Yale 4
Now projected to score in each field event, Cornell was the big winner here, gaining 12 points in a fortnight. Brown added a point, Columbia six, and Princeton held steady; everyone else lost a few points.
IRE + FEMH: Cornell 166, Columbia 85, Harvard 79, Brown 75, Princeton 68, Penn 49, Dartmouth 44, Yale 23
IRE + FEMH + Relays: Cornell 182, Princeton 94, Columbia 93, Harvard 90, Brown 79, Penn 69, Dartmouth 44, Yale 28
IRE + FEMH + Heptathlon: Cornell 166, Columbia 85, Princeton 82, Harvard 79, Brown 75, Dartmouth 59, Penn 51, Yale 23
Everything: Cornell 182, Princeton 108, Columbia 93, Harvard 90, Brown 79, Penn 71, Dartmouth 59, Yale 28
Kibitzer’s comments on scoring:
“Based on my skimming of the last two weekends’ results, I had not expected such a clear-cut advantage for Cornell at this point: their relays at Penn did not make a lot of noise, for instance. But despite a few gaps–most surprisingly, they project no scoring in the individual 400 and 800!–they are solid in most events and project multiple scorers in several.
Nevertheless, I expect the other women’s teams to cut Cornell’s margin substantially. As anticipated, Princeton (particularly) and Columbia have improved, with Brown moving up very well. The relays will be the real wild card and could determine several places, with Brown (four points), Columbia (eight), and Dartmouth (none?) projecting well below what I see as their potential.
In fact, as indoor, Dartmouth has the potential to bump its scoring very significantly, if it chooses to use its middle- and distance runners optimally–if not maximally. The same potential for more points in those events seems to be Princeton’s; frankly, I think the Tigers could make this meet “interesting,” though their deficit in the field events may just be too much.”